Latest NATO strike

Pakistan is annoyed at the U.S. for by chance or intentionally killing 24 of its soldiers in a helicopter incident along the Afghanistan border. It’s certainly angry enough to cut off NATO supply routes for the war and order the U.S. out of its major Pakistani base for the drone war. But it’s not angry enough to stop U.S. drones and other planes from flying over its territory — which is one of the only steps the Pakistanis can take that really would mess up America’s shadow war on its turf.

Usually, Pakistan just threatens to kick U.S. aircraft out of Shamsi. This time, they’ve sent the U.S. an expulsion notice: clear out in 15 days.

But it’s not like giving up Shamsi means the drones bundle up and fly home. Most likely, they’ll travel across the Afghanistan border, for launch pads purpose for drones and other U.S. warplanes.

If the Pakistanis reject the U.S. its airspace, though, that’s a much bigger deal. Operationally, Pakistan army would have to move in anti-aircraft guns to challenge any drone or war planes which constantly intrude Pakistani air space. And such a move is not on cards after looking at past 10 years

But it would mean that the U.S. is actively prosecuting a war on Pakistani soil against the wishes of the Pakistani government or is it with the wishes of Islamabad?

But even if the Pakistanis aren’t keeping U.S. aircraft out of their skies, kicking American functioning out of Shamsi still carries danger for them. Suppose that expelling the U.S. from Shamsi is intended to show Pakistani citizens that their government is standing up to Washington. But the next time U.S. drones attack the tribal areas, they’ll make the Pakistani government look powerless.